EIA forecasts continued growth in U.S. oil production past 2023

(WO) – Experts are predicting growth in U.S. crude oil production in 2023 and beyond. Recently, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that they expect new milestones for U.S. crude oil production amidst sustained global petroleum demand and rising prices.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects U.S. crude oil production to surpass 12.9 MMbpd for the first time in late 2023 and to exceed 13 MMbpd in early 2024. In its August Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA forecasts U.S. crude oil production to average 12.8 MMbpd in 2023, which is 200,000 bpd more than in its July forecast. 

EIA expects sustained global demand for petroleum products and Saudi Arabia's extended voluntary production cuts will contribute to oil prices rising through the year. The Brent crude oil price was near $75 per barrel at the beginning of July and increased throughout the month to surpass $86 per barrel on August 4. EIA forecasts the Brent crude oil price to increase the rest of 2023 and to approach $90 per barrel in late 2023. 

They also said they see natural gas consumption growing. "U.S. natural gas consumption in our forecast averages 80.5 Bcfgd in September, an increase of 5% from last September and a record for September. The increase follows a period of elevated natural gas-fired electricity generation from strong U.S. air-conditioning demand in response to summer heat as well as reduced generation from coal-fired plants." 

In addition, "We forecast continued growth in domestic oil production, which is bolstered by higher oil prices and higher well productivity in the near term," said EIA Administrator Joe DeCarolis. “Most of the country felt some brutal heat in July, and just like last summer, that heat significantly increased electricity consumption," DeCarolis said.