Canada’s oil output may start declining in 2032, regulator says

Robert Tuttle December 09, 2021

CALGARY (Bloomberg) --Canada’s oil production could continue to rise for the next decade and then begin declining as countries strive to reduce carbon emissions, the Canada Energy Regulator said Thursday.

Production will increase to 5.8 million barrels a day in 2032 from 5 million this year and then decline to 4.8 million barrels a day in 2050, according to a report. The projection is based countries continuing to strengthen measures to fight climate change, contributing to inflation-adjusted Brent crude falling to $40 a barrel by 2050 from $68 a barrel this year.

Should climate change measures be less stringent, Canadian output will plateau at 6.7 million barrels a day in 2040, the report predicts. Canada, holder of the world’s third-largest crude oil reserves in its oil sands of Northern Alberta, is the largest foreign oil supplier to the U.S.

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